Thriving in Uncertainty: Why Purpose, Not Prediction, Wins the Future
The world isn’t “getting” more volatile — it is volatile. It always has been.
What’s changed is our collective illusion that uncertainty was something we could "predict away."
Now, volatility has snapped back into focus — and leadership demands more than better data dashboards. It demands a better inner compass.
The Neuroscience of Uncertainty: Thinking and Feeling
Modern neuroscience tells us: decision-making under uncertainty isn’t purely cognitive — it’s emotional too.
When we face uncertainty, our brains light up in two key regions:
The amygdala (fear and threat detection)
The prefrontal cortex (reasoning and executive function)
Research from Rimé (2009) emphasizes that emotional disclosure — whether through sharing personal feelings or collective emotional experiences in groups — facilitates better stress regulation and decision-making under uncertainty. In fact, teams that engage in collective emotional processing are more likely to navigate adversity effectively.
Without intentional emotional regulation — like labeling anxiety or confusion — the amygdala hijacks our behavior. We default to fight, flight, freeze... or analysis paralysis.
Netz, Svensson, and Brundin (2020) emphasize that in rapidly changing environments, affective responses — like fear or anxiety — strongly influence decision-making. However, leaders who cultivate emotional regulation and maintain focus on shared goals can harness these emotions constructively, leading to quicker and more effective strategic decisions.
But here’s the crucial insight: naming the emotion (e.g., "This situation makes me anxious") helps calm the amygdala and activate the prefrontal cortex, clearing space for better decisions.
As Antonio Demasio noted many years ago, and the research continues to build on this claim, “Emotions are not obstacles to reasoning — they are part of reasoning."
This is why connecting to a clear, shared purpose isn’t soft leadership; it’s smart leadership. Purpose focuses attention, regulates emotion, and guides action through chaos.
Purpose: The Organizational Immune System
Williams et al. (2017) underscore that organizations with strong, shared purpose and a resilient organizational identity recover more effectively from crises. Their research shows that a clear purpose and collective emotional alignment enable organizations to better withstand shocks, adapt, and emerge stronger.
Think of purpose as a sort of immune system of an organization.
Without it, uncertainty spreads like a virus, paralyzing teams.
With it, you recognize threats, adapt quickly, and heal faster.
In an uncertain world, your people don’t need perfect instructions.
They need to know what game they’re playing — and why it matters.
Purpose doesn’t eliminate uncertainty. It makes uncertainty manageable.
Borrowing wisdom from the Stoics: "You cannot control external events. You can only control your responses." Purpose aligns those responses across teams.
Ancient Wisdom Meets Modern Science
Emerging neuroscience research backs this up:
Preuschoff, Mohr, Hsu (2013): Decision-making under uncertainty requires integrating emotional regulation with cognitive processing.
Tomasello (2014) argues that human collaboration is driven by shared identity and emotional bonds, which enhance cooperation and decision-making. Teams that share a common purpose naturally align their emotional and cognitive processes, enabling them to overcome challenges with greater unity and insight.
Monosov (2020): Outcome uncertainty mediates attention and learning — meaning focus and curiosity are harder, and more important, than ever.
Kross et al. (2023) discovered that self-reflection, particularly when centered on shared goals or a common purpose, activates brain regions associated with emotional regulation and social cognition, allowing teams to act with greater emotional coherence and resilience during volatile periods.
Berkman and Falk (2013) reveal that group identity and emotional coherence among team members significantly boost emotional regulation and collective decision-making under pressure. This shared identity provides a foundation for teams to act with greater cohesion and resilience, even when uncertainty is high.
Hinsz and Robinson (2025) argue that mood states within teams play a critical role in shaping collective judgment and decision-making. When teams are emotionally aligned and focus on shared purpose, they can mitigate the negative impacts of stress or frustration, leading to more balanced and effective decision-making.
It’s no accident that successful cultures — from ancient tribal societies to today’s most resilient businesses — organize around shared stories, shared values, and shared emotional experiences during times of change.
They understood: when the map is unclear, the compass matters more.
Actionable Takeaway:
In a volatile environment, organizations that orient around a clear purpose — and teach emotional labeling and regulation — will not just survive, but thrive.
When uncertainty rises, don’t default to tighter controls or more reporting layers. Double down on purpose, connection, and continual learning.
Join the Conversation:
In your experience, how does your organization help (or hinder) emotional regulation during uncertainty?
What practices or rituals have helped your teams stay aligned and focused in volatile times?
Share your thoughts below; I’d love to hear how others are navigating this.
Works Cited / References
Berkman, ET & Falk, EB. 2013. Beyond brain mapping: using neural measures to predict real-world outcomes. Current directions in psychological science 22.1.45-50.
Damasio, A. 1994. Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain.
Edmondson, AC. 2018. The fearless organization: Creating psychological safety in the workplace for learning, innovation, and growth. John Wiley & Sons.
Epictetus, Discourses (Stoic philosophy on resilience and response).
Hinsz, VB & Robinson, MD. 2025. A Conceptualization of Mood Influences on Group Judgment and Decision Making: The Key Function of Dominant Cognitive Processing Strategies. Small Group Research 56.1.71-113.
Kahneman, D. 2011. Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.
Kross, E, Ong, M & Ayduk, O. 2023. Self-reflection at work: Why it matters and how to harness its potential and avoid its pitfalls. Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior 10.1.441-64.
Monosov, I.E., 2020. How outcome uncertainty mediates attention, learning, and decision-making. Trends in neurosciences 43.10.795-809.
Netz, J, Svensson, M & Brundin, E. 2020. Business disruptions and affective reactions: A strategy-as-practice perspective on fast strategic decision making. Long range planning 53.5.101910.
Nicholas, J, Daw, ND & Shohamy, D. 2022. Uncertainty alters the balance between incremental learning and episodic memory. Elife 11.e81679.
Preuschoff, K, Mohr, PN & Hsu, M. 2013. Decision making under uncertainty. Frontiers in Neuroscience 7.218.
Rimé, B. 2009. Emotion elicits the social sharing of emotion: Theory and empirical review. Emotion review 1.1.60-85.
Senge, PM. 1997. The fifth discipline. The art and practice of the learning organization.
Tomasello, M. 2014. A natural history of human thinking. Harvard UP.
Williams, TA, Gruber, DA, Sutcliffe, KM, Shepherd, DA & Zhao, EY. 2017. Organizational response to adversity: Fusing crisis management and resilience research streams. Academy of management annals 11.2.733-69.
Want to be part of the (r)evolution?
I am putting the finishing touches on the first draft of a book with a friend and colleague Andrew Lopianowski on the concept, which we are calling HumanCorps. If you’d like to learn more about the book, or perhaps have some amazing stories of people who are putting these efforts in motion to be the change we need, please drop me a line.